Europe is facing a growing wave of security threats, from cyberattacks on supermarket cooling systems to fake bomb threats on dozens of passenger flights, which caused aircraft diversions and fighter jet scrambles. At the same time, incidents of social unrest and suspicious acts of sabotage in various European countries intensify concerns about the continent's resilience and its real readiness to face modern security threats. Last week, hackers gained remote access to supermarket cooling systems in European countries, causing food spoilage and destruction, while also highlighting the vulnerabilities of critical everyday infrastructure. Subsequently, the cooling systems of French blood banks became targets, in an incident that appears to share similarities with previous attacks.
At the same time, a wave of likely false bomb threats caused disruption to dozens of flights across Europe. The week ended with bomb threats against European media outlets, including British Sky News and the Irish public broadcaster RTÉ. These incidents are unfolding in an environment of heightened geopolitical tensions and internal social unrest, with Europe's political and economic infrastructure potentially becoming increasingly attractive targets for hostile actors. Authorities have so far failed to ascertain who is behind the attacks or whether the incidents are connected. However, defense and security experts warn that the disruption of everyday services can cause consequences much broader than immediate financial damage.
Russia and hybrid warfare: The cost of support for Ukraine
If Russia is behind the attacks, then it may be seeking to highlight the cost that continued support for Ukraine entails for European societies. This is the assessment of Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), who argues that the main goal of such actions may be to exert economic and political pressure on European governments. Kaushal told CNBC that he believes it is more about imposing costs and convincing the European political leadership that the cost of a war can return and directly impact its own societies.
Supermarket cyberattacks: Critical infrastructure in the crosshairs
On Monday, supermarkets in Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, and the Netherlands discovered that cooling systems had been set to temperatures reaching up to 50 degrees Celsius. The incident affected major retail businesses, including Ahold Delhaize, IKEA, Colruyt Group, and Carrefour. This followed a cyberattack in October that hit hundreds of French supermarkets, causing fires, refrigerator overheating, and food spoiling. These incidents highlight the significant weaknesses that exist in food supply chain infrastructure, as well as the crucial role of private businesses in ensuring national resilience. Internet-connected equipment can become an easy target, allowing malicious actors to cause real physical damage through digital attacks. Fredrik Blix, a cybersecurity expert at Visente and associate professor at Stockholm University, told CNBC that the attacks on supermarket cooling systems did not require a particularly high level of technical expertise. As he explained, vulnerable cooling control systems were directly connected to the public internet, allowing attackers to locate them and exploit their weaknesses. Blix noted that these attacks do not really require particularly advanced know-how to carry out, adding that some systems were only protected by default passwords or easily guessable codes.
Emphasizing that this is why such attacks are so cheap, Blix warned that the publicity surrounding the incidents can encourage copycats. According to him, cyberattacks have increased significantly over the past decade as societies become increasingly digitalized and vulnerable systems are more easily accessible. At the same time, increasing geopolitical tensions have led European countries to greater vigilance against hybrid war threats, strengthening scrutiny from governments and the media. Although Blix does not rule out the possibility of state or state-sponsored involvement, he considers it more likely that someone is testing the limits of safety systems or simply engaging in such actions for fun.
Underwater cables and sabotage: The new dimension of threats
Sidharth Kaushal argues that the incidents should not be viewed in isolation, but within the context of a wider wave of suspicious acts of sabotage and hybrid threats across Europe. These also include damage to underwater cables in the Baltic Sea, which are critical infrastructure for telecommunications and data transfer. Pointing out that if it were an isolated incident, one could say it should be evaluated on its own, he added that when viewed within the broader context of all these events, the picture becomes less clear. He also invoked death threats against European defense industry executives, as well as the bomb placed on a DHL aircraft in 2024.
Can Europe defend itself against new threats?
European governments are called upon to face an increasingly complex security environment, as uncertainties around US security guarantees intensify following decades of inadequate investment in European defense. At the same time, non-traditional threats are increasing, which may not lead to open military conflict, but have the potential to cause severe economic and social consequences. Hybrid warfare combines different forms of action, such as cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation, with the goal of destabilizing an opponent without requiring the launch of a conventional military conflict. According to Kaushal, the capabilities of European countries to address such threats vary significantly. Finland and Sweden possess developed civil defense programs, which reflect their experience from the Cold War era. In contrast, much of European infrastructure has been designed with a primary criterion of economic efficiency rather than defensive shielding. Kaushal noted that the further west one goes in Europe, the level of preparedness against both hybrid and simple missile attacks, like those seen in Ukraine, is significantly lower. He underlined that every attack forces European countries to gradually enhance their resilience, citing NATO's increased attention to threats against underwater cables and natural gas pipelines following the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022.
Europe has not adapted to the new reality
Oana Popescu-Zamfir, a senior researcher at RUSI specializing in European security, estimates that the recent incidents prove Europe has been slow to prepare for threats that were already known to emerge. Stating that we were slow to adapt to the new reality, she noted that we still conceptually separate peace from the period of war. However, this no longer applies, as we are neither at war nor in a period of peace. She assessed that Europe is likely to face prolonged hybrid attacks, which will seek to achieve military objectives without the use of conventional military power. Russia, according to her, could utilize networks of proxy partners and supporters within Europe, some of which may be under direct control while others coordinate more loosely, making it extremely difficult to directly assign responsibility to the Kremlin. Popescu-Zamfir warned that attacks on internet-connected systems can cause massive damage, specifically highlighting the risks to blood supplies. Characterizing these attacks as neither extremely easy for Russia nor rocket science, she added that they can cause tremendous damage on both a practical and psychological level, reinforcing the sense of insecurity and the belief among citizens that they are not adequately protected.
Businesses do not take basic cybersecurity measures
Fredrik Blix underlined that businesses can take relatively simple measures to limit their exposure to such attacks, noting these are basic cybersecurity practices that should already be in place. He stressed that industrial control systems and corresponding operational technologies should not be allowed to connect directly to the internet without appropriate security mechanisms. However, responsibility for system protection is fragmented among equipment manufacturers, maintenance companies, and supermarket chains, resulting in a lack of clarity over who bears the ultimate responsibility. Blix explained that maintenance companies often prioritize convenience by enabling remote access to systems despite manufacturer safety guidelines, while retail businesses may fail to enforce sufficient cybersecurity standards on their suppliers. Expressing concern that we are not actually doing anything, Blix added that authorities spend time on paperwork and risk assessments without moving to substantive actions.
Social discontent and economic pressure: The second front of destabilization
Alongside cyber threats and suspicious acts of sabotage, Europe has faced widespread social unrest in recent months. The increased cost of living, high inflation, and dissatisfaction with governments amplify political pressure as households struggle to meet their daily financial obligations. Alexander Anderson, president and policy director at the Centre for International Security and Economic Strategy, warned that internal political and economic tensions can provide opportunities for foreign adversaries to intensify social divisions. Stating to CNBC that influence operations from Russia and potentially China may seek to amplifying these divisions, he cautioned that not every social protest should be automatically attributed to foreign interference. Urging caution against dismissing genuine domestic social grievances as the result of foreign intervention, he warned that doing so risks misinterpreting both the causes of political instability and the ways hostile actors attempt to exploit it.
France, Spain, and Germany facing social unrest
In France, weeks of nationwide protests, riots, and strikes have increased pressure on the government, complicating efforts to curb fiscal deficits and intensifying pre-existing political divisions. In Spain, protests and a parliamentary deadlock over the housing market crisis led Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to call snap elections scheduled for November 29, while the far-right Vox party is expected to strengthen its position, creating serious risks for the survival of Sanchez's leftist government in power. Unrest due to the increasing cost of living has also been recorded in recent weeks in Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Albania. On Friday, protesters in Amsterdam attempted to enter a Microsoft data center, according to a Reuters report. These incidents capture growing social discontent, which combined with external threats creates an especially complex environment for European governments.
Inflation, energy costs, and fiscal deficits constrain governments
At the same time, high energy prices, persistent inflation, sluggish economic growth, and large fiscal deficits further burden the situation, with increased borrowing costs limiting governments' fiscal space and reducing their ability to support households struggling with the cost of living. Europe thus finds itself faced with a multi-layered problem of security and economic stability, where on one hand cyberattacks, sabotage, and hybrid operations create new threats for critical infrastructure and public services, while on the other hand social discontent, political polarization, and limited fiscal capabilities hinder the response of governments. The core question is no longer just whether Europe can face a conventional military threat, but whether it is prepared to endure a prolonged hybrid war where the battlefield can be a supermarket, a hospital, an airport, or an electronic communications network.
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