The approval of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum by the parliament of eastern Libya on October 20, 2026 was a severe diplomatic blow for Athens.
The government found itself facing a development that complicates its planning in the Eastern Mediterranean, at the very moment it prepares to restart surveys for the Greece, Cyprus cable.
At the same time, Turkish officials provoke Greece saying that it will lose part of its islands... all these are a mixture of failure and manufactured tension in the middle of a pre-election period.
From Libya to Cairo
Athens is attempting to react on multiple fronts.
It is intensifying contacts with Egypt for the extension of the delimitation of maritime zones, while the debate returns regarding the extension of Greek territorial waters to 12 nautical miles south of Crete.
In parallel, it seeks to cut European funding instruments toward Libya.
There is, however, a serious obstacle.
The increase in migration flows from eastern Libya toward Crete renders cooperation with local authorities necessary.
The European Union has its own interests in the country, and it is not a given that it will accept restricting the funding and cooperation tools linked to migration management.
Athens needs, therefore, to pressure Libya without losing channels that it considers critical.
The cable and the rallying of ND
The next major test is the electrical interconnection cable of Greece, Cyprus.
Turkey disputes the ability to conduct surveys without prior coordination with it, invoking among other things the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.
Athens rejects this stance and prepares the resumption of surveys, with the issue expected to provoke renewed reactions from Ankara.
At the same time, however, the tough rhetoric of Ankara, such as that of Ibrahim Karagul, advisor to Erdogan, can reinforce the national security narrative domestically, shifting the discussion from everyday economic pressure to Greek-Turkish relations.
There is fear of Samaras and they pursue a hardline strategy on national issues
In this environment, a new crisis can also have an internal political dimension.
When national issues dominate, a segment of voters rallies around the government, even if they disagree with Kyriakos Mitsotakis over high prices, taxation, or the housing crisis.
For ND, such a development could temporarily curb losses toward its right flank.
Here lies the interest regarding Antonis Samaras, who maintains a distinct national agenda and exercises criticism against government policy.
Highlighting Turkey as a central issue can make things difficult for those attempting to challenge ND from the right, particularly if Maximos Mansion appears to decisively defend Greek rights.
A crisis can offer political benefits, even if it was not sought after.
If tension escalates, the government can win time and regain part of its right-wing cohesion.
If, however, the national agenda operates as a temporary shelter from social problems, the relief in opinion polls will not mean that anything pressing on society has been resolved.
High prices, increased energy costs, and the housing crisis continue to squeeze households that remain dissatisfied.
Maximilianos
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